The article is based on a discussion featuring Dr. Jan Rosenow, Director of European Programs at the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), Honorary Research Fellow at Oxford University’s Institute of Environmental Change, Maciej Noga, entrepreneur, investor and visionary shaping the future of work and energy, and Piotr Ostaszewski, CEO of Ekovotis / e2V. The panel was moderated by Artur Osiecki, editor of Rzeczpospolita.

Recent decades have brought a wealth of scientific evidence that clearly shows that our planet is facing one of the most serious crises in human history: climate change. The scientific community has widely acknowledged the data showing an alarming rise in global temperatures, accelerated glacial melting and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events-under these conditions, all new sources of energy are at a premium.

These changes, attributed to excessive greenhouse gas emissions, have a huge impact on the entire global economy and the lives of millions of people. As a result, the imperative of climate neutrality has changed from a mere ambition to an absolute necessity. But are we able to achieve this goal by 2050, as most countries are striving to do? What challenges do we face with such an ambitious goal? And if this goal can be achieved, what will our energy future look like?

Piotr Ostaszewski

“We need a tsunami effect”

The journey towards a sustainable energy transition requires us to make a huge effort and achieve a “tsunami effect” in the energy sector. We are already partially seeing the effects of this transformation – Europe is changing in terms of energy sources, with more and more wind and photovoltaic farms being built. However, this is only the first step in the process – the next aspect is balancing energy and rethinking how we consume energy. We have recently experienced the phenomenon of negative energy prices in Poland – and this brings a change in our thinking. We can even think about the fact that we could potentially make money from using energy sources at certain times.

However, realizing this vision requires significant changes in regulations, home appliances and individual investments, such as having batteries that can be charged during hours of cheap energy. Then with that energy we could power, for example, an electric car. However, such a transformation requires a multifaceted approach, including regulatory changes, technological innovations and individual investments. I am convinced that it would have a positive impact on the economy, generating new jobs and contributing to the prosperity of Poland and the European economy.

“Electrics are our future”

When it comes to electric cars, I understand that they raise many questions – but we really have nothing to fear. They’re a viable alternative, and many countries are already the norm – including the Netherlands, where users can charge them for free or for very low amounts. The black PR that car-mounted batteries have is also exaggerated – the batteries can be reused as energy storage units in homes and offices, extending their usefulness beyond their initial role in vehicles. Car manufacturers, however, are already working on new solutions – more environmentally friendly, more durable and capable of longer trips of up to a thousand kilometers.

In contrast, I would call the alleged frequent fires of electrics misinformation spread by proponents of traditional internal combustion engine cars. Electric vehicles are no more prone to fires than their conventional counterparts, if you look at them from a statistical point of view.

Dr. Jan Rosenow

“We need grid expansion”

In the context of the new energy landscape, I see three key issues. First, a critical aspect is the need to rebuild the electricity system. This is a global challenge, evident not only in Poland, but also in many European countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels. Even countries with significant renewable energy sources still use fossil fuels to manage and balance their systems. The overarching goal, set by most governments and the European Commission, is to achieve a cleaner electricity system, with an expected completion in the mid to late 2030s.

The second key element is electrification. Currently, only about 20% of our energy consumption comes from electricity, while the remaining 80% is based on burning various fuels, mostly fossil fuels. Future projections show a significant increase in the use of electricity, potentially doubling or even tripling its current share. This shift presents tremendous opportunities, especially in the digital realm, given that electricity is inherently a digitally managed product.

Finally, the third key issue is demand-side flexibility. The existing system is based on predicting and planning energy supply based on anticipated demand. However, with the increasing integration of variable energy sources such as wind and solar, the future requires a paradigm shift. Supply will become more unpredictable, requiring a shift in demand-side planning to accommodate the variable nature of supply. This fundamentally changes traditional thinking about energy management, turning the system on its head – in the future, demand will follow supply in a more dynamic and flexible way.

An additional challenge is the need to significantly expand and modernize global electric grids. We need 80 million kilometers of new grids – or the reconstruction of existing ones – to meet growing global energy demand. Not the least of which is smart grids, which can bring numerous savings to consumers and somewhat reduce the momentum of reconstruction. This expansion is currently a bottleneck – planned wind or solar projects are hampered by insufficient grid capacity, and it’s not just the technical aspects. Social resistance is an obstacle, as people are reluctant to support the construction of infrastructure visible from their homes. This social challenge adds an additional layer of complexity to an already difficult task.

Maciej Noga

“Necessary cooperation and search for new solutions”

Meeting the challenge of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires navigating complex issues and considerations – one of which is limitations on the hours of operation of wind and photovoltaic systems. Windmills operate an average of about 2,300 hours a year, and photovoltaics 1,000 hours – so we need to find solutions for the remaining time.

Another challenge is meeting the need for thermal energy, which we will not get from wind and solar power. So we may need a transition phase, involving the use of, for example, natural gas, carbon capture systems or other solutions to provide the fuel needed to generate heat. Nuclear power is also a potential solution here, although, as we know, building nuclear power plants is a time-consuming process.

Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is therefore possible, subject to adequate energy storage and the development of a smart grid and efficient electricity distribution. Here we need to think about international cooperation and optimization of energy resources, as well as the design of new new infrastructure, such as buildings, offices and housing developments, with an emphasis on near-zero net energy consumption.

Another approach that can help us is to decentralize energy production. A housing development, for example, can become an independent energy entity that generates and stores energy, while connected to a smart grid, allowing for seamless exchange of energy resources.

“Hydrogen could be a viable option”

In the context of transportation and electric cars, I am of the opinion that hydrogen could become a viable option for large-scale transportation in the future, potentially within the next decade. However, we have a lot of environmental concerns here – hydrogen has a 20 times greater impact on global warming than carbon dioxide (CO2), prompting more restrained optimism about its role. In addition, we still don’t have a fully developed infrastructure for hydrogen-powered vehicles, so here further progress is needed.